Good Morning! Here’s Your Energy Market Report for 28/10/2024
Our goal is to provide up-to-date insights into the wholesale gas and power markets through our energy market report, helping you make informed decisions about your business energy contracts. Let’s dive into the latest trends and how they may affect your energy rates.
Day Ahead Price Comparison Table for 28/10/2024
Date | Gas UK NBP (p/therm) | Electricity UK Base (£/MWh) |
Today | 106.50 | 109.50 |
Previous Day | 108.25 | 93.00 |
Last Week | 98.48 | 86.50 |
Last Month | 92.00 | 73.00 |
Last Year | 117.00 | 94.50 |
Comparison | Gas % Change | Power % Change |
Daily | Down by 1.62% | Up by 17.74% |
Weekly | Up by 8.14% | Up by 26.59% |
Monthly | Up by 15.76% | Up by 50.00% |
Yearly | Down by 8.97% | Up by 15.87% |
Price Movements:
Gas: The NBP Day Ahead gas price saw a slight decline today, settling at 106.50p/therm, which remains elevated after recently surpassing the 100p/therm mark for the first time this year. Over the past week, prices have increased by 8.14%, driven by seasonal demand and the continued impact of geopolitical tensions. While prices are up 15.76% compared to last month, they remain nearly 9% lower than this time last year.
Power: Electricity prices rose sharply, up by 17.74% today to £109.50/MWh, reflecting increased demand and supply constraints. Over the past month, electricity prices have surged by 50%, a trend largely driven by colder weather forecasts and increased demand for heating as winter approaches.
These movements highlight how short-term factors, such as colder temperatures and geopolitical uncertainties, continue to affect market stability.
Market Insights: What’s Driving Today’s Prices?
Gas Market
Supply Constraints: The NBP Day Ahead gas price saw pressure from an emergency halt at Sleipner B due to smoke detection, pushing up prices temporarily until output from Troll and Oseberg offset the shortfall. Norway’s supply remains a critical factor, with several planned maintenance sessions affecting flows intermittently.
Geopolitical Risk: Market sentiment remains cautious amid concerns over potential Israeli action against Iran, which has boosted oil and gas prices on fears of potential supply disruptions.
LNG Competition: News of gas shortages in Egypt is fuelling competition for LNG supplies, particularly as winter demand peaks, which is adding a premium to prices.
Power Market
Increased Demand: Electricity prices have been impacted by rising demand for heating, with temperatures forecasted to dip further, particularly in November.
Renewable Generation: Although wind power generation is currently at seasonal norms, colder weather is expected to limit renewable contributions, leading to higher gas-for-power demand. Power prices may remain elevated if renewable output does not offset the increased winter demand.
Month Ahead Prices: What Can We Expect for November 2024?
Looking at Month Ahead prices for November, both gas and electricity markets are signalling sustained pressure as winter approaches, with noticeable increases in recent weeks.
November 2024 | ||
Month Ahead Power | Today (open) | Yesterday (close) |
Gas (pence per therm) | 110.10 | 111.91 |
Electric (£ per MWh) | 100.82 | 100.66 |
Day Ahead vs. Month Ahead: What Does It Mean for Your Business?
Gas: Today’s Day Ahead gas price of 106.50p/therm is just below the Month Ahead price of 110.10p/therm. This suggests that while the market anticipates slightly softer prices in the immediate term, longer-term factors point to sustained upward pressure as we move into winter.
Power: The Day Ahead electricity price of £109.50/MWh is slightly above the Month Ahead price of £100.82/MWh, reflecting short-term spikes in demand. However, the market appears to anticipate some stabilisation, though colder weather could counteract this.
In recent weeks, gas Month Ahead prices have steadily increased, climbing from 98.21p/therm at the end of September to today’s 110.10p/therm. Similarly, Month Ahead power prices have risen from £88.38/MWh to £100.82/MWh. These trends underscore the potential benefits for businesses in securing energy contracts sooner to mitigate exposure to ongoing price increases.
Market Trends Over the Last 6 Months
The graph above illustrates the day-ahead wholesale gas and electricity price fluctuations over the past six months. The chart highlights recent sharp increases in both gas and power prices, driven largely by colder weather forecasts and supply-side challenges. Such volatility underscores the importance of monitoring market trends closely as we move deeper into winter.
Oil Market Update – 28/10/2024
Oil prices rose on Friday, with Brent crude closing up 2.25% at $76.05/barrel and WTI up 2.27% at $71.78/barrel. The market remains on edge due to ongoing Middle East tensions and the potential for further escalations involving Israel and Iran.
Geopolitical Tensions: Israel’s retaliatory strikes over the weekend avoided Iran’s oil infrastructure, easing some concerns about disruptions. However, continued tensions keep the risk premium in oil prices elevated.
Demand Factors: Positive indicators from the U.S. and China support demand, with China’s recent economic measures expected to boost oil consumption.
Conclusion and Recommendations
Given the sustained increase in both gas and power prices, businesses may want to consider securing competitive energy rates sooner rather than later. Winter seasonality, combined with geopolitical instability, is likely to maintain upward pressure on prices in the short term. Staying informed and proactive can help businesses manage potential cost impacts.
Get in Touch:
For tailored advice and competitive rates, contact us at The Smart Energy Company.
Phone: 0151 459 3388 Email: info@smart-energy.uk
Disclaimer: This blog provides insights into the market and should not be the only thing you use to make business decisions.
P.S. Remember, even if you’re not ready to switch yet, it’s always good to know what options are out there. Just let us know your contract end date, and we’ll make sure you’re looked after when the time comes.
Comentarios