Overview of November’s Energy Market: Gas, Power, and Oil Insights

Overview of November’s Energy Market

November 2024 saw a significant rise in energy prices across the UK’s gas and power markets, driven by colder weather, supply-side constraints, and heightened geopolitical tensions. As businesses prepare for winter, understanding the factors behind these changes is essential for planning ahead and managing costs effectively.



In this report, we’ll delve into November's gas, power, and oil market trends, compare them to October's figures, and provide a forecast for December.

Key Highlights for November 2024

• Gas Market: The average gas price in November was 112.26p/th, up 13.76% from ctober's 98.69p/th. This increase reflects heightened heating demand and supply constraints during the colder period.



• Power Market: Electricity prices in November averaged £102.86/MWh, an increase of 16.85% from October’s £88.05/MWh, driven by lower wind generation and reliance on gas-fired power plants.

Gas Market Overview: November 2024

The gas market experienced notable volatility throughout November. Prices rose steadily due to colder-than-average temperatures and supply-side constraints, particularly from unplanned maintenance and strong gas-for-power demand.

Key Drivers:



1. Colder Weather: November brought significantly colder temperatures, driving increased heating demand across the UK.
2. Supply Constraints: Norwegian maintenance and reduced LNG sendouts contributed to tighter supply, particularly in mid-November.
3. Geopolitical Tensions: Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict raised concerns over gas transit routes, adding upward pressure to prices.

Updated Gas Prices:

• Start of the Month: 97.40p/th (1 November 2024)
  
  
• End of the Month: 116.50p/th (29 November 2024)
  
  
• Highest Price: 121.90p/th (21 November 2024)
  
  
• Lowest Price: 97.40p/th (1 November 2024)
  
  
• November Average: 112.26p/th

Power Market Overview: November 2024

Electricity prices also saw sharp increases in November, driven by colder weather, reduced wind generation, and a greater reliance on gas-fired power plants. This trend was consistent throughout the month, with peaks in mid-November as gas prices climbed further.

Key Drivers:



1. Lower Wind Generation: Wind speeds remained below seasonal norms for much of November, reducing renewable energy output.
2. Gas-for-Power Demand: As gas prices increased, so did the cost of gas-fired electricity generation, contributing to higher power prices.
3. Temperature Drops: A colder-than-average November saw increased electricity demand for heating, particularly during the second half of the month.

Updated Electricity Prices:

• Start of the Month: £107.75/MWh (1 November 2024)
  
  
• End of the Month: £95.00/MWh (29 November 2024)
  
  
• Highest Price: £113.00/MWh (12-13 November 2024)
  
  
• Lowest Price: £64.00/MWh (22 November 2024)
  
  
• November Average: £102.86/MWh
  

Oil Market Overview: November 2024

Brent crude prices fluctuated throughout November, averaging $72.81 per barrel. The market was influenced by heightened geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as well as concerns about global demand and OPEC+ production cuts.

Key Drivers:

1. Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Escalation in the conflict raised concerns about supply disruptions, pushing prices higher at times.
2. OPEC+ Decisions: Expectations of delayed production increases supported prices, though concerns over weaker global demand kept gains in check.
3. Global Demand Concerns: Slower economic growth in major markets like China and the Eurozone weighed on prices throughout the month.

Oil Prices:



• Highest Price: $74.23 per barrel (22 November 2024)
• Lowest Price: $68.72 per barrel (28 November 2024)
• November Average: $72.81 per barrel

Looking Ahead: December 2024 Forecast

As we move into December, several factors could influence gas and power prices:



1. Weather Conditions: Prolonged colder-than-average temperatures could sustain high demand for gas and electricity.
2. Supply Uncertainty: Ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in Norwegian gas flows or LNG shipments could tighten supply further.
3. Renewable Energy Output: Wind speeds are expected to increase, which may alleviate some of the upward pressure on electricity prices.
4. OPEC+ Decisions: Continued monitoring of oil output policies will shape global energy dynamics into the new year.

Conclusion

November 2024 brought significant increases in gas and electricity prices, reflecting colder weather, supply-side challenges, and geopolitical uncertainty. With winter in full swing, businesses must remain vigilant and proactive in securing favourable energy rates.



At The Smart Energy Company, we provide expert guidance to help businesses navigate market volatility and make informed decisions. Contact us today for a free quote and see how current market trends could impact your energy contracts.

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Contact us today at 0151 459 3388 or request your free energy quote and stabilise your energy costs. At Smart Energy Company, we specialise in finding the best utility contracts for your business, ensuring you never miss a renewal and always get the best deals.