Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets
Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.
Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report: Gas & Power Markets
From the 14th to the 21st of August 2023, the gas and electricity markets showcased a series of dynamic price shifts, influenced by both global events and regional maintenance activities.
The week commenced on the 14th with the NBP (National Balancing Point) DA (Day Ahead) gas contract closing at 79.50p/th and the electricity price at £86.00/MWh. The decline in the gas price was primarily due to surplus volumes sold at elevated prices and European stock levels nearing the 90% target set by the European Commission.
On the 15th, the NBP DA gas contract marked a significant rise, closing at 92.70p/th, while the electricity price peaked at £89.75/MWh. This uptick in gas prices was largely attributed to the onset of Kollsnes maintenance, extended shutdowns, and prolonged maintenance schedules at various UKCS (United Kingdom Continental Shelf) facilities.
By the 16th, the NBP DA gas contract decreased slightly to 88.00p/th, with the electricity price adjusting to £85.50/MWh. The market continued to be influenced by the Kollsnes maintenance and other extended shutdowns at UKCS.
The 17th saw a bearish trend in the gas market, with the NBP DA trading at 82.00p/th and the electricity price dropping to £81.50/MWh. This was majorly influenced by a surge in wind speeds, leading to a decrease in gas for power demand. The delay in talks between major LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) providers, such as Woodside and Chevron, added to the market's uncertainty.
The 18th remained relatively stable for gas, with the TTF DA at 82.70p/th, while the electricity price slightly increased to £85.25/MWh. The looming potential strike action in Australia and its implications on global LNG supplies kept the market on its toes.
Concluding the week on the 21st, the TTF DA gas price exhibited a bullish stance, closing at 92.50p/th, and the electricity price rose to £95.25/MWh. This was majorly influenced by the unanimous decision by the Offshore Alliance regarding potential strikes at Australian LNG ports and other factors like the reduction in LNG sendouts due to limited cargo arrivals.
Key Points:
Maintenance Activities: The onset of Kollsnes maintenance and extended shutdowns at various UKCS facilities played a pivotal role in influencing gas prices.
Australian Strike Concerns: The potential strike action at Australian LNG facilities and the associated uncertainties significantly impacted the market.
Weather Influences: Intensifying heatwaves and fluctuating wind speeds were major determinants in gas for power demand.
Graph of the Last Week's Movements:
Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements
Forecast:
As we step into the upcoming week, the market is poised for continued volatility, primarily driven by regional maintenance schedules, potential strike actions in Australia, and evolving supply-demand dynamics.
Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:
Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:
DAY AHEAD PRICES | Gas (pence per therm) | Electric (£ per MWh) |
14/08/2023 | 79.50 | 86.00 |
15/08/2023 | 92.70 | 89.75 |
16/08/2023 | 88.00 | 85.50 |
17/08/2023 | 82.00 | 81.50 |
18/08/2023 | 82.70 | 85.25 |
21/08/2023 | 92.50 | 95.25 |
WEEKLY AVERAGE | 86.23 | 87.21 |
Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report: Oil Markets
From the 14th to the 21st of August 2023, the oil market witnessed a series of price changes, influenced by global demand forecasts, economic data, and geopolitical events.
The week began on the 14th with Brent crude oil prices rising slightly by 0.5% to settle at $86.81 a barrel, while the U.S. benchmark, known as WTI, also increased by 0.5%, settling at $83.19. This increase was driven by the International Energy Agency's prediction of record global oil demand and the anticipation of reduced supplies. Additionally, positive U.S. economic data hinted at the possibility of the Federal Reserve concluding its aggressive interest rate hikes.
On the 15th, concerns about China's economic recovery and a strengthening U.S. dollar led to a decline in oil prices. WTI prices decreased by 0.82% to $82.51 a barrel, and Brent settled at $86.21 a barrel. Additionally, there was news of resumed exports from Nigeria's Forcados terminal, which had been halted due to a potential leak.
The 16th echoed the previous day's sentiment, with both WTI and Brent prices reflecting concerns about China's economic prospects and the potential impact on global oil demand.
On the 17th, despite a significant reduction in U.S. oil stocks, prices settled lower. Brent prices decreased by 1.7% to $83.45 a barrel, while WTI declined by 2% to $79.38. This was influenced by concerns about China's economy and the release of Federal Reserve minutes, which indicated a division among officials regarding further interest rate hikes.
The 18th saw a rebound in oil prices, with Brent rising by 0.8% to $84.12 a barrel and WTI increasing by 1.3% to $80.93 a barrel. This uptick was influenced by China's central bank's efforts to support its economy and a weakening U.S. dollar.
Concluding the week on the 21st, both Brent and WTI prices showed an increase, driven by signs of slowing U.S. oil production. WTI prices gained 1.1% to settle at $81.25 a barrel, while Brent increased by 0.8% to $84.80 a barrel. A decline in the U.S. oil and natural gas rig count, which is an early indicator of future production, raised concerns about potential supply tightness for the remainder of the year.
Key Points:
Global Demand Forecasts: Predictions of record global oil demand by the International Energy Agency influenced market movements.
Economic Data: U.S. economic data and China's economic recovery concerns played significant roles in the market's dynamics.
Geopolitical Events: Resumed exports from Nigeria's Forcados terminal and potential output cuts influenced the market.
Forecast: As we navigate the upcoming week, the oil market's volatility is expected to persist. Key factors likely to shape the landscape include China's economic direction, adjustments in production by major oil nations, and global demand variations. In the long run, macroeconomic factors and global energy transitions will crucially dictate oil market directions.
12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year
Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:
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