Did you know the UK energy market saw noteworthy changes last week? Understanding these trends is crucial for making informed business decisions. Let's delve into what these developments mean for your business.
Your Weekly Guide to UK Energy Markets
Welcome to The Smart Energy Company's Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Report, your go-to source for the latest insights and updates on UK energy markets. As an energy brokerage company, we understand the importance of staying informed about the changing trends in the energy market. That's why we provide these weekly market reports, to help businesses like yours make informed decisions when negotiating your next energy contract.
Weekly Gas and Power Market Review: 27/11/2023 - 04/12/2023
Gas Market Overview:
Start of the Week: The gas market opened at 114.00 p/th on 27/11/2023, with prices nudging higher due to colder weather and an unplanned outage.
Midweek Trends: The market experienced a dip on 28/11/2023 to 111.00 p/th amidst a solid supply and a long-term forecast of milder weather. However, the cold spell kept the demand for heating high, with a slight decrease to 104.00 p/th on 29/11/2023 due to Norwegian outages and maintenance at LNG terminals.
End of the Week: Prices saw a bearish trend, with the market pricing in the risks from the cold spell, closing at 109.00 p/th on 30/11/2023, and then dropping to 106.00 p/th on 01/12/2023 as supply remained robust.
Electricity Market Overview:
Start of the Week: Electricity prices opened at £111.75/MWh on 27/11/2023, with an expected increase in consumption driving the prices.
Midweek Trends: Prices climbed to £119.50/MWh on 28/11/2023, reflecting the uptick in demand due to the cold. The rest of the week saw a significant increase, peaking at £142.00/MWh on 30/11/2023 before settling at £111.00/MWh on 01/12/2023 as the temperatures were forecasted to rise.
Key Factors Influencing the Market:
Weather Conditions: The UK's dip into colder temperatures significantly influenced both gas and electricity prices, with an increase in heating demand.
Supply Dynamics: Despite high demand, a strong supply from LNG regasification and Norwegian imports helped to balance the market.
Market Reactions: The market adjusted to the cold weather spell, with prices reflecting the robust supply and forecasts of milder weather in the coming weeks.
Conclusion:
The UK gas and power markets last week were largely driven by the cold weather increasing demand. However, strong supply and the forecast of rising temperatures tempered the market, leading to a general downtrend in gas prices while electricity prices fluctuated more significantly. The upcoming week may see further changes as the market responds to the evolving weather conditions and supply levels.
Graph of the Last Week's Movements:
Let's take a visual look at the past week's gas and power market movements
Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 04/12/2023 to 11/12/2023
The upcoming week in the UK gas and power markets is anticipated to be influenced by milder weather conditions and strong supply dynamics. While a decrease in heating demand could lead to lower prices, the market will remain sensitive to any sudden changes in weather patterns and renewable energy outputs. Stakeholders should stay informed and be prepared to adjust to these evolving market conditions.
Table of the Movements on Each Day in the Last Week:
Here's a detailed breakdown of the daily changes in gas and electric prices over the past week:
DAY AHEAD PRICES | Gas (pence per therm) | Electric (£ per MWh) |
27/11/2023 | 114.00 | 111.75 |
28/11/2023 | 111.00 | 119.50 |
29/11/2023 | 104.00 | 137.00 |
30/11/2023 | 109.00 | 142.00 |
01/12/2023 | 106.00 | 111.00 |
04/12/2023 | 103.25 | 120.00 |
WEEKLY AVERAGE | 107.88 | 123.54 |
Oil Market Summary: 27/11/2023 to 04/12/2023
Overview
The oil market experienced a week of varied fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events, OPEC+ meetings, and global economic activity.
Start of the Week (27/11/2023)
Reduced Geopolitical Risk: Oil prices fell with the release of hostages in Gaza, reducing geopolitical risk premiums. Brent crude futures settled down 1% at $80.58 a barrel, while WTI crude fell 2% to $75.54.
Midweek Movements
28/11/2023: Prices dipped with Brent falling below $80 a barrel, amid expectations of OPEC+ supply curbs.
29/11/2023: Prices rebounded by about 2% on the possibility of extended or deepened OPEC+ supply cuts and a drop in Kazakh oil output. Brent crude settled at $81.68 a barrel, and WTI at $76.41.
30/11/2023: Oil prices rose more than $1 a barrel, with Brent reaching $83.10 a barrel and WTI $77.86, as the market anticipated fresh supply cuts from OPEC+.
End of the Week (01/12/2023)
OPEC+ Decision: Prices fell more than 2% after OPEC+ agreed to voluntary output cuts that didn't meet market expectations. Brent crude for January settled at $82.83 a barrel, and WTI crude at $75.96.
Start of the New Week (04/12/2023)
Investor Skepticism: Oil prices slumped further due to skepticism about the depth of OPEC+ supply cuts. Brent crude futures for February settled at $78.88 a barrel, while WTI crude dropped to $74.07.
Key Points
Geopolitical Developments: The Gaza hostage situation initially influenced prices, but focus shifted to OPEC+ decisions.
OPEC+ Meeting: The market was heavily impacted by OPEC+'s meetings, with expectations and actual decisions on production cuts affecting prices.
Global Economic Concerns: Sluggish global manufacturing activity raised concerns about fuel demand, influencing the market.
Forecast for the Upcoming Week: 04/12/2023 to 11/12/2023
The oil market may continue to be volatile, influenced by the aftermath of the OPEC+ meeting, ongoing geopolitical developments, and global economic indicators. Market participants should stay alert to these evolving dynamics, as they will likely influence oil price movements in the coming week.
12-Month Graph to Show the Movements Over the Last Year
Now, let's zoom out and take a look at the long-term trends in the energy market over the past year:
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Check our weekly market reports regularly to stay updated on the latest UK energy market trends. This equips you with the knowledge to capitalise on savings opportunities and make smart contract renewal decisions for your business.
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