Your Weekly Wholesale Energy Market Update - 03/07/2023
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Snapshot of market movements
Ga & Power Markets - Weekly Energy Report
Last week in the Gas & Power markets, there were notable developments and trends:
Gas Markets: Wholesale gas prices experienced volatility due to maintenance and outages at Norwegian gas facilities. Prices initially dropped, with NBP front-month and TTF contracts seeing significant decreases. However, there was a slight uptick in prices later in the week as investors closed positions ahead of the front-month contract expiration and due to concerns about future LNG supply. The ongoing outages in Norway and uncertainty around available supply contributed to within-day volatility. Overall, gas contracts remained relatively flat or saw marginal gains, with longer-term contracts having limited price growth.
Power Markets: Power prices were influenced by factors such as wind output forecasts, higher gas prices, and extended maintenance in Norway. The attempted coup in Russia initially caused spikes in power contracts, but prices receded as the market realized there were no immediate supply impacts. Strong wind generation curbed demand for fossil fuels, including gas, leading to lower power prices. However, some uncertainty remained due to the impact of the extended maintenance on available gas supply and the need for fossil fuels. Longer-term power futures experienced small upward corrections.
Throughout the week, the Gas & Power markets displayed volatility, influenced by factors such as geopolitics, supply disruptions, renewables, and market sentiment. The market closely monitored developments in Russian geopolitical events and the return of key gas facilities in Norway. Additionally, wind generation forecasts and the interplay between gas and power prices shaped market dynamics.
Looking ahead, market participants will continue to assess geopolitical risks, supply dynamics, and renewable energy generation in shaping the Gas & Power markets. Unexpected developments in these areas may lead to further volatility, while factors such as maintenance, global energy demand, and market sentiment will also influence pricing trends.
Forecast
In the Gas & Power markets for the upcoming week, several factors are likely to shape pricing and market dynamics:
Gas Market: The market will closely monitor the ongoing maintenance and outages at Norwegian gas facilities. The schedule for the return of key plants, such as the Nyhamna gas plant, will be of particular interest as it may impact supply dynamics and pricing.
Geopolitical events, especially any further developments related to the attempted coup in Russia, will be key drivers of market sentiment. Escalations or de-escalations of tensions can impact energy supply and potentially influence pricing.
The behaviour of Asian buyers rushing to secure long-term LNG deals will introduce uncertainty into the market. The level of future supply and its implications may influence pricing dynamics and overall market sentiment.
Power Market: Renewable energy generation, especially wind output, will continue to play a significant role in power pricing. Robust wind generation can curtail the demand for fossil fuels and thus potentially lead to lower power prices.
Market participants will pay close attention to the impact of extended maintenance on gas supply and the subsequent need for fossil fuels in power generation. This analysis will be instrumental in understanding pricing dynamics and market sentiment.
Spot and futures prices will likely reflect a combination of factors, including the level of renewable energy generation, gas price movements, overall market sentiment, and demand expectations.
The Gas & Power markets are expected to exhibit volatility as market participants respond to ongoing maintenance, geopolitical events, and the interplay between renewable and fossil fuel prices. Observing geopolitical developments, monitoring supply dynamics, and considering renewable energy generation will be crucial for understanding pricing trends and market direction.
Oil Markets - Weekly Energy Report
Over the past week, the oil market has experienced volatility and fluctuations in prices. Brent crude has shown a mixed performance, with some days ending lower and others rebounding slightly. Overall, there has been a general downward trend in oil prices. Concerns over China's economic recovery, fears of further interest rate hikes by the US Federal Reserve, and geopolitical turmoil in Russia have contributed to this downward pressure.
The market has been rangebound, moving within a specific price range since early May, with ups and downs driven by factors such as supply cuts, demand woes, and macroeconomic concerns. Muted demand globally has acted as a counterbalance to potential supply cuts. The market has remained sensitive to news and developments in China due to the lack of other significant demand drivers.
Additionally, the oil market has been influenced by broader trends in global equities. There have been retreats and losses in equities, particularly due to concerns over the potential impact of interest rate hikes and geopolitical events. However, there have also been moments of slight upticks, driven by economic data and other factors.
Looking forward, there are continued concerns about sluggish economic activity and its impact on fuel demand. Rising interest rates and a slow recovery in Chinese manufacturing and demand are expected to keep oil prices under pressure. However, it is important to note that market dynamics can quickly change based on various factors, and caution remains in the market.
Overall, the oil market has faced volatility and downward pressure in the past week, influenced by a combination of global economic factors, geopolitical events, and market sentiment.
Forecast
Oil Price Volatility: Given the recent volatility and fluctuations observed, it is likely that oil prices will continue to experience volatility throughout the week. Factors such as geopolitical tensions, global economic data, and supply-demand dynamics will play key roles in determining oil price movements.
Chinese Economic Data: News and data pertaining to China's economic recovery will remain a crucial factor in the oil market. Any negative or positive surprises in Chinese economic indicators could significantly impact oil prices, as China is a major oil consumer.
Geopolitical Developments: The market will closely monitor geopolitical developments, particularly any escalation or de-escalation of conflicts such as the situation in Russia. Any disruptions to global oil supply or implications for energy markets could lead to price fluctuations.
Central Bank Policies: The actions and statements of major central banks, especially the US Federal Reserve, regarding interest rates and monetary policy will be closely scrutinized. Any indications of a more aggressive or dovish stance could impact market sentiment and oil prices.
Inventory Data: The release of weekly inventory data, such as the US Energy Information Administration's report, will continue to influence oil prices. If inventory levels show significant deviations from market expectations, it can lead to price movements as they provide insights into supply and demand dynamics.
It is important to note that unforeseen events and developments can swiftly alter market dynamics. Additionally, risks associated with global economic conditions, regulatory changes, and energy transition efforts should be considered when interpreting the forecast. Traders and investors should stay updated on relevant news and market indicators to make informed decisions.
Jargon Buster
Bearish - In relation to energy markets, bearish means that there is an expectation of a decrease in the demand for energy products, or an increase in the supply of energy products, which would result in a decrease in the price of energy products. This could be due to a variety of factors such as a slower economic growth, overproduction of oil and gas, or the emergence of alternative sources of energy. A bearish outlook for energy markets suggests that companies operating in the industry may struggle to maintain profits and may be forced to cut costs or reduce production.
Bullish - In relation to energy markets, bullish means that there is an expectation of an increase in demand for energy products, or a decrease in the supply of energy products, which would result in an increase in the price of energy products. This could be due to various reasons such as a growing global economy, production cuts by major oil-producing countries, geopolitical tensions that impact the supply, or a shift towards renewable energy sources. A bullish outlook for energy markets suggests that companies operating in the industry may see increased profits and may be able to invest in new projects to meet the growing demand for energy products.
How the market has opened each day:
DAY AHEAD PRICES | Gas (pence per therm) | Electric (£ per MWh) |
26/06/2023 | 81.40 | 92.50 |
27/06/2023 | 85.20 | 94.50 |
28/06/2023 | 85.75 | 95.50 |
29/06/2023 | 86.00 | 86.00 |
30/06/2023 | 91.30 | 68.20 |
03/07/2023 | 94.00 | 92.50 |
7 day averages
Gas (pence per therm) 87.28
Electric (£ per MWh) 88.20
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