Monthly Energy Market Overview: June 2024
June 2024 was a month of dynamic changes in the gas and power markets. With significant supply-side disruptions, varying demand due to weather conditions, and fluctuations in LNG cargo arrivals, the markets experienced both bullish and bearish trends. This report provides a comprehensive analysis of the key factors that influenced the markets, compares these trends with previous months, and offers a forecast for July 2024.
Key Highlights for June 2024
Gas Market: NBP prices saw fluctuations due to supply disruptions and varying demand.
Power Market: Power prices were influenced by wind generation and the carbon market.
LNG Cargo Arrivals: Limited LNG arrivals impacted market balance.
Market Trends and Influences
Gas Market Overview
In June 2024, the gas market experienced considerable fluctuations. Early in the month, NBP prices were affected by lower local demand and maintenance activities in the UK Continental Shelf (UKCS). An unplanned outage at the Nyhamna gas processing plant in Norway led to significant supply constraints, pushing prices higher as the market anticipated tighter supply.
As the month progressed, the expected return of Nyhamna and increased flows from Norway, particularly via the Langeled pipeline, helped to ease some of the upward pressure on prices. However, sporadic maintenance issues and lower LNG sendouts maintained a level of uncertainty in the market. Towards the end of June, the arrival of several LNG cargoes provided some relief, stabilising prices.
Power Market Overview
Power prices in June 2024 were heavily influenced by wind generation and carbon market dynamics. Lower-than-average wind speeds during parts of the month increased the reliance on gas-for-power, driving up prices. Additionally, fluctuations in the carbon market added another layer of complexity to price movements.
Mid-month, power prices saw some relief with the return of nuclear reactors and an improvement in wind generation forecasts. However, ongoing maintenance at key regasification plants and limited LNG arrivals kept the market on edge. By the end of the month, improved wind generation forecasts and a better supply outlook for LNG helped to stabilise power prices.
Summary
June 2024 was a month of notable shifts in the UK gas and electricity markets. Key factors included:
Unplanned outages and maintenance impacting gas supply.
Fluctuations in wind generation affecting gas-for-power demand.
Stable nuclear power output supporting electricity supply.
Increased LNG cargo arrivals easing supply concerns towards the month's end.
As we move into July, it's essential to stay informed and agile, given the dynamic nature of the energy market. We hope this update has provided a clear and concise overview of the monthly energy market trends.
Energy Market Averages
DATE | GAS (pence per therm) | ELECTRIC (£ per MWh) |
Last 7 Days | 80.74 | 70.17 |
Last Month | 82.50 | 75.28 |
Last Year | 82.20 | 77.46 |
How does this compare to May 2024?
Compared to May 2024, June saw increased volatility in both gas and power markets. In May, gas prices rose steadily due to lower North Sea imports and increased demand, starting at 70.50p per therm and closing at 83.50p per therm. Similarly, electricity prices began at £61.50/MWh and ended at £75.00/MWh.
In June, gas prices fluctuated more significantly due to unplanned outages and maintenance activities. Starting the month at 83.00p per therm, prices peaked mid-month before stabilizing towards the end, averaging around 82.50p per therm. Electricity prices mirrored these trends, opening at £72.50/MWh and showing sharp movements throughout the month, influenced by wind generation and carbon market dynamics.
Overall, gas prices in June averaged slightly higher compared to May, reflecting ongoing supply uncertainties. Power prices, while volatile, also trended higher on average due to lower renewable output and higher reliance on gas-fired power generation.
Forecast for July 2024
Looking ahead, July is expected to see continued volatility, especially if unplanned outages persist. However, with several LNG cargoes expected to arrive by the end of June, supply concerns may ease somewhat. Key factors to watch in July include:
Weather Conditions: Continued monitoring of wind generation and temperatures, which affect both gas-for-power demand and overall energy consumption.
Maintenance Schedules: Any planned or unplanned maintenance activities that could impact supply from the UKCS and Norway.
LNG Arrivals: The number and timing of LNG cargoes arriving in the UK and their impact on market balance.
Last 12 month market movements
As we examine the broader trends, this graph provides a retrospective look at the last 12 months in the monthly energy market. It charts the day-ahead wholesale prices for gas and electricity, illustrating the volatility and trends that have shaped the market over the year.
Oil Market Summary for June 2024:
The oil market in June 2024 exhibited notable volatility influenced by geopolitical events, economic indicators, and supply-demand dynamics. Here is a detailed overview of the key trends and price movements throughout the month:
Starting Price and Ending Price:
Brent Crude: Opened the month at $81.62 per barrel and closed at $86.39 per barrel.
WTI Crude: Began at $76.99 per barrel and ended at $81.74 per barrel.
Highest and Lowest Prices:
Brent Crude: Reached its monthly high at $86.39 per barrel and dipped to a low of $77.52 per barrel.
WTI Crude: Peaked at $85.33 per barrel and had its lowest at $73.25 per barrel.
Significant Changes:
Early June: Prices fell initially due to concerns over the OPEC+ meeting and potential supply increases despite weak demand. Brent dropped below $80 per barrel, with WTI also reaching near 4-month lows.
Mid-June: Prices fluctuated as the U.S. Federal Reserve hinted at potential interest rate cuts, and OPEC+ extended output cuts. Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, supported prices. Brent and WTI saw moderate gains during this period.
Late June: Oil prices surged towards the end of the month, driven by optimistic demand forecasts for the summer and ongoing geopolitical risks, including tensions in Europe and the Middle East. Brent reached its monthly high, closing at $86.39 per barrel, while WTI also ended on a strong note at $81.74 per barrel.
Average Prices for the Month:
Brent Crude: Approximately $82.80 per barrel.
WTI Crude: Around $78.50 per barrel.
Commentary:
June 2024 was marked by significant fluctuations in oil prices, driven by a combination of geopolitical tensions and economic indicators. The influence of OPEC+ decisions on production cuts and supply increases played a critical role in shaping market dynamics. The month saw a mix of factors, with price movements reflecting the complex interplay between supply concerns, demand signals, and broader economic trends.
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