One whole year of conflict has come and passed in Ukraine. The affect the last year has had on global commodities, politics and tensions will last for many years to come. The story is far from finished, and we are likely to see this war continue and develop throughout 2023.
Reflecting on the past 12 months then, we can note wholesale gas and power prices are indeed now lower year to year despite no end to the conflict in sight.
We have seen how Europe, and most notably Germany have pivoted completely away from Russian piped gas, With Norway the unsung heroes in filling the void. A feat many doubted would have been impossible for Germany 12 months ago.
We have seen the growth and demand in the LNG market, with the Netherlands and Germany building and expanding infrastructure. The UK signing a multibillion-pound contract with the United States and several other European nations double down on LNG supply for long term gas supply.
We have seen record breaking heatwaves for Europe. Hydro stocks decimated over the summer. We have seen 40 year high inflation figures push interest rates to levels last seen pre 2008 financial crash, and pressure oil markets lower.
We saw record breaking energy prices in August 2022, where electricity rates broke the £1/kwh. Rough storage re-opened in the UK to bolster storage levels. We saw the national grid pay a record breaking £9,724MWh to Belgium to keep help keep the lights on in the Southeast.
We have seen the threat of rolling blackouts, which never materialised, many owed to an overall mild winter. We saw China finally exit a near 3-year deep lockdown, and catch up with the rest of the world in getting over the coronavirus pandemic.
We saw BP, Shell, SSE and Centrica generate record breaking profits in the UK. And finally, we have sadly seen an estimated 200,000 people lose their life in war in Ukraine.
What does the next 12 months hold for us all?
How the market has opened each day:
DAY AHEAD PRICES | Gas (pence per therm) | Electric (£ per MWh) |
20/02/2023 | 123.00 | 133.75 |
21/02/2023 | 123.00 | 133.5 |
22/02/2023 | 128.00 | 133.00 |
23/02/2023 | 128.20 | 129.75 |
24/02/2023 | 131.20 | 145.50 |
27/02/2023 | 129.50 | 142.75 |
7 day averages
Gas (pence per therm) 127.15
Electric (£ per MWh) 136.42
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