This morning, the Electric wholesale (Day Ahead) prices have opened up 6.80% lower than this time last week with Gas (Day Ahead) did not change.
What a week to remember! Suppliers pulled their price books for three days in a row as a result of another price increase that followed Russia's pipeline flows dropping to their lowest levels in twenty years. In the worst-case scenario, Dutch TTF increased by almost 55 percent throughout July as LNG averaged $50/mmbtu, officially making it cheaper to convert energy into gas using synthetic methane than the other way around.
Heat waves keep water levels low and endanger the production of coal, nuclear, and energy sources. They are predicted to last through September. Demand from grumbling air conditioners has decreased by merely 8%, while gas storage levels have progressively increased to 68 percent of their maximum capacity. As their LNG import terminals operate at capacity, Europe trades at a gas premium of over $10/mmbtu compared to Asia and over $40/mmbtu to North America.
Rates increased by more than 10% week over week throughout the curve, with Baseload equivalent up 17.55 percent and NBP Month Ahead up 12.73 percent. Even though Friday's session saw some discounts, annualised Oct-12m contracts ended last week at premiums of 12%.
The biggest development over the weekend was the announcement by Russia that it will stop supplying supplies to Latvia and Shell Energy Europe in Germany. No specific reasons as to what Latvia supposedly did to warrant having its supply interrupted were provided. Before January 1, 2023, Latvia had already taken action to halt imports from that country. Dutch TTF is currently discounted by 4%, while Brent is down 1.27 % and European carbon is up 1.16 % because to the anticipated shortage of supply in August. Despite these warning indications, the UK market is showing early signs of a bullish week with Q4 offered at a premium of £40/MWh.
How the market has opened each day:
DAY AHEAD PRICES | Gas (pence per therm) | Electric (£ per MWh) |
25/07/2022 | 285.00 | 257.50 |
26/07/2022 | 324.00 | 315.00 |
27/07/2022 | 360.00 | 341.00 |
28/07/2022 | 329.00 | 317.00 |
29/07/2022 | 280.00 | 295.00 |
01/08/2022 | 285.00 | 240.00 |
7 day averages
Electric (£ per MWh) 294.25
Gas (pence per therm) 310.50
The below shows how the market compares to the previous week, month and year.
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